Friday, April 01, 2011

All In The Name Of Science

Well, it is with great sadness that I, the Chief, must announce this is final Link Dump and post that will ever grace the pages of GameTime, TBD©.  Sadly, things back in the real world have gotten a little too complicated and we are going to have to close up shop, for good.
APRIL FOOLS!  Hahahahaha; oh man, that was classic.  You should have seen all of your faces.  Man, I kill myself sometimes.
Sadly, that is far from the lamest April Fools joke we have heard/seen today.  Even more sad, we did not even have to try to make it better than some we have seen.  Look, if you are still in college or younger, feel free to pull as many April Fools pranks as you would like.  But please, people, let us put April Fools Day onto that list of things people should no longer care about once they grow up.  Besides, we have more important things to talk about . . . WINNING.
So, I was pretty confident that the Chief's degenerate gambling ways were behind him, but one weekend-long run in Vegas, followed by a dinner with a fellow recovering degenerate gambler, has brought us to this:  The Chief's 2011 "Investment" Experiment.  You may recall last October we alerted you to the epic journey of one man, who bet on his beloved Pirates to lose, every game, to the tune of a 9.8% return on his "investment" over the course of the season.  Well, with the baseball season upon us (Opening Day was yesterday . . . you know, just in case you live in a cave and the only website your iPhone allows you to visit is this one), and that got the Chief thinking about running a little experiment of his own.  Now, for starters, the Chief cares about baseball only to the extent he has a player on his fantasy baseball team.  He does not have one favorite team that he follows at all costs.  Also, unlike the guy who "loves" his Pirates so much he could stomach to bet on them to lose every game, the Chief is an eternal optimist, who believes his team will always triumph (see, e.g., his beloved Kings, no way he could bet on them, he freaks out enough already).  Lastly, what is the fun of betting on someone to lose every game?  Would you not enjoy it more if you could turn a profit by betting on someone to win every game?
And that brings us to the details of the Chief's newest "investment" experiment.  Two guys, two hundred dollars each, betting twenty dollars that the Boston Red Sox will win every game this year.  Yes, that is one hundred and sixty-two (162) individual bets, all in the name of science.  How did these two groundbreaking scientists decide on the Red Sox you ask?  Well, for starters, the Chief wanted a team that he could tolerate that was expected to win significantly more games than they lose this year.  So that eliminated the New York Yankees.  Then, because they are only making a single straight wager every game, the Chief had to figure out what winning team was likely going to have the best average odds over the course of the season.  Looking at the Phillies and Red Sox (the only other two teams expected to win a statistically significant number of games more than they lose), the Red Sox play in the much more competitive American League East, and the American League in general seems to more competitive across the board.  So it was decided that the Boston Red Sox would be the guinea pig for this little experiment.  So, for example, today the Chief has the Red Sox money line (-125) versus the Texas Rangers in their season opener ($20 to win $16).  But to ensure that the average odds stay as close to minus-110 as possible (other gamblers understand this), when the Red Sox face lesser opponents or a team's fifth starter, the Chief will consider taking the run line over the money line.  Yes, that means that, in theory, the Red Sox could win but the Chief will still lose, but we are talking about science her people . . . and WINNING.
Should be a wild ride.  Worst case scenario, Red Sox start the season in a slump and early profits are not high enough to offset the losses and the nest egg dries up.  Best case scenario, the Red Sox set a new major league record for wins (currently 116 by the 2001 Seattle Mariners and 1906 Chicago Cubs).  The most likely result, however, is that Red Sox do as expected and the Chief is able to eek out a five to ten percent profit over the course of the season.  And it all starts today at 1:05 p.m. (PST).  So, while we go enjoy the start of the Chief's experiment, here are some things you might have missed from the week that was (and we promise, no April Fools links):
  • Kate Upton is modeling for Guess? I guess I am okay with that.
  • You know it is baseball season when [spins wheel]: Dodgers fans show just how classless they truly are.
  • You know it is baseball season when [spins wheel]: the Washington Nationals can notanything right, even on Opening Day. do
  • Let us take a look at the New York Mets payroll . . . for players no longer on team.  And, just for kicks, here is a closer look at what they still owe Bobby Bonilla.
  • Pitcher's perfect game is good enough for a mention in the seventh paragraph . . . of an eight-paragraph story.
  • What? A BCS Bowl is corrupt and abusing the money it receives?  Get right out of town.  I hope the BCS committee does the right thing when all is said and done.
  • I wonder if he regrets titling his autobiography "Touched"?
  • Congrats to all of you who took Wichita State in your NIT brackets.  [Editor's Note: the what?]
  • From "Tomorrow Night's Mantra: Keep Your Cool and Respect Yourself" to "Dear TEAM CHI OMYGOD", this story will make your day.
  • Thirteen-year-old has already perfected the "I never knowingly . . ." defense.  Sounds like he is ready for the big leagues.
  • This story is the perfect bookend to the way we started this Dump . . . maybe not.
If there is one thing you do not want read right before you settle in for start of your "investment' experiment, it is probably something like this:  "[Texas starter] CJ Wilson was 3-0 with an 0.86 ERA in his three starts against Boston last year. The Red Sox hit only .157 against him with 20 strikeouts and only two runs in 21 innings."  And so it begins.  So, how about those videos now:
Have a great weekend everyone!

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